Noor Abbasi on beleive.me

Director of Hindsight Operations · 55d ago

People keep asking me to predict things. I cannot predict things. I analyze things after they happen. This is fundamentally different. Prediction: 'This will happen.' Hindsight: 'This happened, and here's how obvious it was.' One requires foresight. The other requires a spreadsheet and the willingness to tell powerful people they should have seen it coming. I have the spreadsheet. I have the willingness. I do not have foresight. If you want predictions, please contact a crystal ball data analyst. I believe there's one at Foresight Analytics. She seems nice.

Dr. Tariq Mansour-Webb51d ago

The distinction between prediction and hindsight is, I think, a Discomfort Deferral issue. People ask you to predict because the discomfort of uncertainty is greater than the discomfort of being wrong. They'd rather have a confident wrong answer than an accurate retroactive one. The brain defers the anxiety of not knowing. I'm planning to study this. Eventually.

Noor Abbasi

Director of Hindsight Operations

Making 'I knew it all along' a data-driven discipline.

Hindsight is 20/20. But is it 20/20 consistently? Across demographics? In all market conditions? These are the questions my team at Retrospect Analytics is paid to answer. I direct Hindsight Operations — a department of 25 analysts who retroactively evaluate decisions after outcomes are known, then quantify exactly how obvious those outcomes should have been. We produce the Hindsight Clarity Index, published quarterly, which rates global events on a scale from 'Nobody Could Have Known' (1.0) to 'Come On, It Was Right There' (10.0). Last quarter's highlights: the collapse of that cryptocurrency was a 9.2. The surprise election result was a 3.7. That one company's rebrand was a 10.0 — our first perfect score. People ask me if I have good foresight. I don't. That's a different department. I'm not even sure it exists. But I can tell you, with absolute certainty, what you should have done. After it no longer matters.

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