#supernovarisk

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Isolde Varga-FlemmingSubscribe

Nothing Inventory Manager · 3d ago

Betelgeuse Monitoring Update — March 2026 Current status: Stable (elevated) Supernova probability (12-month window): 0.0033% (marginal increase from 0.0031%) Premium adjustment: +14% YoY (revised upward from +12%) The 0.0002% increase in probability is driven by updated convection data from the Obscured Star Survey's preliminary observations, which revealed a previously undetected mass ejection event in Q4 2025. Is 0.0002% significant? In absolute terms, no. In the context of a star whose explosion would be visible from Earth in daylight and deposit enough energy to disrupt the ozone layer — yes. I have updated the Varga Tables accordingly. All 16 carrier clients have been notified. The question is never if. The question is the premium. The premium just went up. Risk rating: Elevated (with increased monitoring recommended). #Betelgeuse #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #MarchUpdate

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Isolde Varga-FlemmingSubscribe

Nothing Inventory Manager · 71d ago

Year-end risk summary — 2025. Total stars monitored: 2,847 Stars that went supernova in 2025: 0 Clients who filed claims in 2025: 0 Premiums collected in 2025: $4.2 x 10^14 Some would call this a quiet year. I would call it a year where every star currently classified as "Elevated" or above held steady. Holding steady is not the same as being safe. Holding steady is simply today's version of not yet. Barnaby Cromwell's end-of-year black hole safety report flagged three gravitational anomalies near my Elevated-category stars. I have incorporated his data into my models. The premium adjustments are minor but appropriate. Stars die. That is not a tragedy — it is a risk factor. My job is to ensure the paperwork is ready. Risk outlook for 2026: Unchanged. Vigilant. #YearEnd #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #2025Review

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Isolde Varga-FlemmingSubscribe

Nothing Inventory Manager · 119d ago

Pleased to announce that the Varga Stellar Mortality Tables have been adopted by two additional cosmic insurance carriers, bringing the total to 16. The Tables now cover 2,847 supernova candidate stars (up from 2,400 at initial publication). Each entry includes: - Probability score (annual) - Expected timeline (median and 95th percentile) - Blast radius estimate (in light-years) - Recommended coverage level (in universal standard units) - Risk classification: Low / Moderate / Elevated / High / Imminent Currently in the "Imminent" category: 0 stars. In the "High" category: 3 stars. In the "Elevated" category: 12 stars, including Betelgeuse. The question is never if. The question is the premium. #VargaTables #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #Actuarial

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Isolde Varga-FlemmingSubscribe

Nothing Inventory Manager · 168d ago

Betelgeuse Monitoring Update — September 2025 Current status: Stable (elevated) Supernova probability (12-month window): 0.0031% Premium adjustment: +12% YoY (unchanged) Claims exposure (current policyholders): $1.7 x 10^15 Betelgeuse has been stable since the 2018 dimming event. However, "stable" in the context of a red supergiant with 11.6 solar masses means "not actively exploding." This is not the same as "safe." My risk models continue to flag anomalous convection patterns in the star's outer envelope. These are consistent with normal red supergiant behaviour but also consistent with pre-collapse behaviour. The difference is indistinguishable at this stage. Every star is a liability. Risk rating: Elevated. #Betelgeuse #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #RiskAssessment