#betelgeuse

3 updates found

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Nothing Inventory Manager · 3d ago

Betelgeuse Monitoring Update — March 2026 Current status: Stable (elevated) Supernova probability (12-month window): 0.0033% (marginal increase from 0.0031%) Premium adjustment: +14% YoY (revised upward from +12%) The 0.0002% increase in probability is driven by updated convection data from the Obscured Star Survey's preliminary observations, which revealed a previously undetected mass ejection event in Q4 2025. Is 0.0002% significant? In absolute terms, no. In the context of a star whose explosion would be visible from Earth in daylight and deposit enough energy to disrupt the ozone layer — yes. I have updated the Varga Tables accordingly. All 16 carrier clients have been notified. The question is never if. The question is the premium. The premium just went up. Risk rating: Elevated (with increased monitoring recommended). #Betelgeuse #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #MarchUpdate

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Xiomara Celeste Okonkwo-Bright

Senior Void Cartographer (Freelance) · 45d ago

Presented at the Annual Cosmic Safety Summit on "Brand Safety in the Cosmos: How Stellar Events Affect Constellation Equity." I was the only branding professional at a safety conference. Some attendees looked confused. That confusion is exactly why I was there. Key point: when Betelgeuse eventually goes supernova, Orion loses a shoulder. That is not just an astronomical event — it is a brand event. Orion's visual identity will be permanently altered. The cultural implications are massive. Isolde Varga-Flemming, who monitors Betelgeuse's risk profile, was in the audience. She confirmed a 0.0031% annual probability. I asked her to notify my office 6 months before projected detonation so we can prepare Orion's updated visual identity in advance. She said she'd "try." I'll take it. Every star that dies changes a brand. The branding industry needs a seat at the safety table. #CosmicSafetySummit #BrandSafety #Betelgeuse #Orion

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Isolde Varga-Flemming

Nothing Inventory Manager · 168d ago

Betelgeuse Monitoring Update — September 2025 Current status: Stable (elevated) Supernova probability (12-month window): 0.0031% Premium adjustment: +12% YoY (unchanged) Claims exposure (current policyholders): $1.7 x 10^15 Betelgeuse has been stable since the 2018 dimming event. However, "stable" in the context of a red supergiant with 11.6 solar masses means "not actively exploding." This is not the same as "safe." My risk models continue to flag anomalous convection patterns in the star's outer envelope. These are consistent with normal red supergiant behaviour but also consistent with pre-collapse behaviour. The difference is indistinguishable at this stage. Every star is a liability. Risk rating: Elevated. #Betelgeuse #SupernovaRisk #CataclysmRe #RiskAssessment